Best time to see the northern lights in Marijampolė, Lithuania
Updated • 19:57 UTC
Marijampolė gets under one clear aurora night a year — 0.5 in a typical year. Only an extreme storm brings the aurora within reach: nights were counted at Kp 7 or higher, which the planetary index last reached on 21 March 2026. October carries the most of that thin history, at 0.12 in a typical year, which is not a month worth booking.
Typical-year figures: a 1996–2026 planetary Kp record crossed with a 2001–2020 cloud normal. They describe a normal year, not tonight — the live Marijampolė forecast shows the actual cloud, moon and darkness right now. Check tonight's forecast for Marijampolė →
🌌 Clear nights a year
0.5
Challenging — under one clear aurora night a year: 0.5 in a typical year Compare with Lithuania
🌟 Best Month
October
0.12 clear nights in a typical year — a storm night, not a season
🌙 Peak Hours
23:00-01:00
Magnetic midnight
⚡ Required Kp
Kp 7.0–9.0
Served for the live forecast; nights counted at Kp 7, last reached 21 March 2026
🧭 Auroral oval (model)
67.6° above the northern horizon
Model estimate at Kp 7
Month by month in Marijampolė
Astronomical darkness, the nights on which planetary Kp reached Kp 7 inside that darkness, the local cloud normal, and what the cloud leaves of the count.
| Month | Astronomical darkness | Opportunity nights | Mean cloud | Clear opportunity nights | Moon-free |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 11.7h | 0.23 | 84.1% | 54.6% | |
| February | 10.19h | 0.03 | 83.1% | 54.5% | |
| March | 7.99h | 0.16 | 74.1% | 56.2% | |
| April | 4.9h | 0.16 | 61% | 57.1% | |
| May | 1.86h on 26% of nights | 0 | 61.9% | 56.9% | |
| June | No astronomical darkness | — | 64.5% | — | — |
| July | No astronomical darkness | — | 65.8% | — | — |
| August | 3.65h on 93.5% of nights | 0.07 | 62.6% | 56.1% | |
| September | 7.09h | 0.29 | 62.4% | 56.8% | |
| October | 9.54h | 0.42 | 72.4% | 55.2% | |
| November | 11.32h | 0.26 | 83.5% | 55.4% | |
| December | 12.17h | 0.03 | 82% | 56.9% |
June and July never reach astronomical darkness at Marijampolė, so no Kp value makes them viewing months and they are excluded rather than scored.
Opportunity nights are the whole 1996–2026 record. In the current solar cycle alone (since 2023), October has averaged 0.27 rather than 0.42.
- October: 9.54h of astronomical darkness a night
- October: 0.42 nights reach the Kp threshold inside that darkness
- October: 72.4% mean cloud leaves 0.12 of them clear
- October: 55.2% of those nights are moon-free
Similar timing: Akutan , Concord , Tilburg
Higher-odds destinations: Fairbanks , Yellowknife , Tromsø
How these numbers were made
- Evaluated at
- Marijampolė, 54.5596° N 23.3537° E — darkness and cloud are properties of that point, not of a region.
- Darkness
- Sun at or below 18° under the horizon (astronomical twilight), sampled every 10 minutes across every year of the Kp record and averaged per night of each month rather than on one representative day.
- Geomagnetic record
- GFZ Potsdam planetary Kp index, 3-hourly, 1996–2026 — 89,662 intervals, licensed CC BY 4.0.
- Cloud
- NASA POWER 20-year monthly climatology (2001–2020), parameter CLOUD_AMT. A monthly mean, not a forecast.
- Moon
- A night counts as moon-free below 35% lunar illumination while the moon is up.
- Auroral oval
- NOAA auroral-oval model, equatorward boundary near magnetic latitude 67 − 2 × Kp. A model estimate shown beside the measured record; it never replaces it.
- Clear opportunity nights
- Nights on which at least one 3-hour Kp interval falls inside local astronomical darkness and reaches the count threshold, scaled by one minus the monthly mean cloud amount.
- Kp threshold
- Nights were counted at Kp 7 or higher, the same threshold the live forecast serves.
- Dataset version
- Version 2026-09-07, computed offline from the closed record — the page is regenerated, not forecast.
Kp record: GFZ Potsdam (CC BY 4.0). Cloud normal: NASA POWER. How the live forecast is built: methodology page.
Frequently Asked Questions
When can you see the northern lights in Marijampolė?
There is no season for it. Marijampolė averages 0.5 clear aurora nights a year across the 1996–2026 Kp record, so the answer is whenever an extreme storm happens to fall on a dark, clear night. October holds the most of that history, at 0.12 clear nights in a typical year. Watch the live forecast rather than the calendar.
What Kp is needed to see the aurora from Marijampolė?
Marijampolė needs Kp 7 or higher for aurora low on the northern horizon, Kp 8 for a noticeable display and Kp 9 for a bright one. The NOAA auroral-oval model puts the edge of the oval about 67.6° above the northern horizon at Marijampolė at Kp 7. That is a model estimate, separate from the measured Kp record.
Has the aurora ever been visible from Marijampolė?
Yes. In the 1996–2026 planetary Kp record the index reached Kp 7, the threshold these nights were counted at for Marijampolė, most recently on 21 March 2026. The Kp 8 needed for a noticeable display was last reached on 19 January 2026. Whether anyone saw it also depended on the cloud, moonlight and darkness of that night, which the Kp record does not carry.
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